|1. Flu Pandemic
||This scenario begins
in southern China and spreads within months to four leading American
Casualities: 87,000 dead, 300,000 in hospital.
|2. Nuclear bomb
||A ten-kilotonne nuclear bomb driven by van into a big
city before being detonated would be the most expensive, costing hundreds
of billions of dollars, according to the planners. Casualties: “could
|3. Chemical and Biological - ground attack
||Terrorists spray anthrax with aerosols from a van as
they drive through three cities. They would be able to hit another
two shortly afterwards before authorities were able to grasp what
Casualities: 13,000 dead. Cost billions of dollars.
|4. Chemical and Biological - contamination
||Anthrax could be used to contaminate batches of ground
beef and orange juice.
Casualties: 300 dead, 400 injured. Cost to economy: millions of dollars.
|5. Chemical and Biological - foot and mouth
||Farm animals infected by terrorists. Disease spreads
as animals are transported around the country.
Casualities: none to humans. Cost to economy: hundreds of millions
|6. Chemical and Biological - airborne attack
||Terrorists using a small aircraft to spray chemical
blister agent over a packed college football stadium.
Casualities: 150 dead and 70,000 taken to hospital. Cost $500 million
|7. Chemical and Biological - ventilation spread
||Release of pneumonic plague into an airport washroom,
a sports arena and a train station in a big city, spreading rapidly.
Casualities: 2,500 dead and 7,000 injured. Cost millions of dollars.
|8. Chemical and Biological - ventilation spread
- sarin nerve agent
||Release sarin gas into the ventilation systems of three
large office buildings.
Casualities: 6,000 dead, 350 injured. Cost $300 million.
Several scenarios envisage terrorists using explosives to
trigger wider disasters.
|9. Explosives - chlorine
||Blowing up a storage tank of chlorine gas and releasing
a large quantity downwind.
Casualities:17,500 dead, 10,000 severely injured and 100,000 taken
|10. Explosives - oil refineries
||Exploding containers ignite cargo ships carrying toxic
Casualities: 350 dead, 1000 injured. Cost to economy: billions of
|11. Explosives - Dirty Bombs
||Bombs with radio-active cesium-137 set off in three
cities and contaminate 20,000 people.
Casualities: 180 dead, 270 injured. Cost to economy: billions of dollars.
|12. Explosives - Improvised bombs
||Car or truck bombs and suicide belts used to attack
hospitals and sports stadiums.
Casualities: 100 dead, 450 injured.
|13. Cyber attack
||Attacks on computers over several weeks on US financial
Casualities: none directly. Cost to economy: millions of dollars.