The Future of English

Research published in the journal Science in February 2004 by David Graddol suggests that:

English, currently the second most spoken world language (Mandarin Chinese is first), is likely to be overtaken by Arabic and the related languages of Urdu and Hindi by 2050.

He estimates that by 2050 the number of native speakers aged 15 to 24 would be (millions):

In 1995 the total number of speakers was estimated as:

Languages gaining in popularity include Bengali, Tamil and Malay

Languages losing their popularity include German and French

A Global Language?

It is generally agreed that English is - and will remain - a Global Language as long as the USA remains a global power. However it is as a second language mediating world trade and communications that it has its most insidious effect. Spoken by non-native speakers it is likely to change into a number of dialects or even pidgins which may eventually have to be learned by native English speakers if they are to participate in world trade.

What can we learn from other languages about the likely future of English as a global language?